To endure future changes, Indonesia must not only rely on continuity but also focus on anticipating risks from the evolving global landscape. The U.S.-China rivalry has significantly shaped interstate relations, especially with both powers leveraging economic, technological, and other non-military instruments in their competition, forcing middle, and lesser powers to take sides, despite their reluctance to do so. Indonesia must anticipate this situation while the country continues to grapple with domestic reforms and efforts to accelerate development, all within the limited window provided by the demographic dividend.

Over the past year, CSIS has conducted research compiling observations, suggestions, and recommendations from national, regional, and global perspectives. The findings suggest that Indonesian foreign policy function well only if there are no significant changes in the international order—such as shifts in the power configuration among great and major powers, the durability of the multilateral system and global norms, or the reliability of the existing regional architecture. Unfortunately, this assumption is flawed leading to a foreign policy performance that falls short of expectations, both domestically and internationally.