This research report is the product of a study by CSIS Indonesia on Indonesia’s strategic dependencies, focusing on the country’s economic vulnerabilities arising from concentrated trade, supply chain, and investment of key sectors. As Indonesia seeks to become an advanced economy by 2045, it cannot afford to detach from the reality where such a vision situates the country directly into the global dynamics and exposes it to vulnerability from disruptions triggered by geopolitical rivalry – represented by the rise of the discursive use of the concept of economic security, which describes perceptions that external dependencies could be weaponised amid global geopolitical shifts.

This study maps Indonesia’s critical economic dependencies, assesses their potential risks, and proposes policy recommendations to enhance resilience. As a caveat, this research departs not from an inquisitive attempt to interpret the impact of ongoing geopolitical dynamics, which many have done, but rather seeks to promote an inquiry of analysis based on what types of geopolitical dynamics, from which sources, and in which regions have the potential to significantly disrupt Indonesia’s economy and overall well-being.

The research departs from the assumption that Indonesia is better served by focusing on “Strategic Dependencies” rather than fully embracing the policy lexicon of economic security as we see circulating around the globe. This concept hones in on the specific areas where Indonesia’s economic well-being is most at risk due to heavy reliance on external actors. By identifying strategic dependencies, Indonesia can prioritise which vulnerabilities to address, without diluting attention across the entire economy.