The likelihood of military conflict in the South China Sea dispute is increasing, particularly with the escalating military standoff between the Philippines and China. Gregory Poling, a South China Sea expert at the Center of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), notes that the possibility of conflict in the South China Sea is higher than around Taiwan.2 In addition to the Philippines, the relationship between Vietnam and China over the South China Sea is also noteworthy. This commentary seeks to address why peacefully resolving the South China Sea dispute is crucial for ASEAN. Furthermore, it will provide insight into how peace theories can be utilized to resolve the dispute.

Why Peaceful Resolution of the South China Sea Dispute is Important for ASEAN

The primary reason the South China Sea dispute is significant for ASEAN lies in its foundational background. The ‘ASEAN Declaration’ made in Bangkok in 1967, which encapsulates ASEAN’s goals and objectives, emphasizes the promotion of regional peace and stability as stated in Article 2. If the South China Sea dispute escalates into full-scale armed conflict, the peace and stability of the entire region would be severely compromised. Besides the Bangkok Declaration, the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) signed in 1976, often regarded as a ‘nonaggression pact’, aims at regional peace and stability. This treaty, joined by ten ASEAN member states and China, emphasizes resolving disputes through non-violent means and negotiations, highlighting its significance.

The ASEAN Charter, which came into effect in 2008, reaffirms ASEAN’s objectives of maintaining and enhancing peace and security, and promoting peace-oriented values. Moreover, various ASEAN summit declarations have consistently underscored ASEAN’s central role in maintaining regional peace and stability. If the South China Sea dispute escalated into a severe military conflict between China and ASEAN member states, ASEAN’s purpose of prioritizing regional peace and stability would be jeopardized. Therefore, what is required to resolve the South China Sea dispute peacefully? I believe that the presence of a clear theoretical framework is essential. Policies to maintain regional peace and negotiate between nations must be based on theoretical foundations. In this regard, I propose the theory of stable peace as the theoretical framework for peacefully resolving the South China Sea dispute.